蔡英文政權的誕生與兩岸關係的轉變――「失去的機會」或「新常態的開端」？（Tsai Ing-wen’s Election and the Transformation of Cross-Strait Relations: “A Lost Opportunity” or “The Dawn of a New Normal?”）

蔡英文政権の誕生と中台関係の転換―「失われた機会」か、「新常態の始まり」か？―

本文的目的在於展望分析民主進步黨在2016 年總統選舉重掌執政後的兩岸關係，將出現何種的變化。習近平及蔡英文都是以重視主權為優先原則的政權，因此兩岸間之摩擦似乎無法避免。不過，習蔡之間某種程度存在著一致的利害關係，因此進行了相當程度的接觸、溝通，並相互做出讓步。可是即使有了這樣的過程，雙方做出讓步的時間點沒有交集，導致無法在2016 年達成共識。不過「機會之窗」也並沒有完全關閉。假如習蔡在未來成功的作出了某種程度的妥協，打開了「機會之窗」，兩會的溝通機制也有一定程度的恢復，我們就可以將2016 年的一連串過程解釋為「失去的機會」；但如果兩會之間的溝通機制持續中斷，而且僵局延續到中長期，我們則可以將其解釋為是「新常態的開端」。

This paper investigates a set of plausible scenarios for cross-Strait relations following the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) return to power in May 2016. My argument builds on my observation that both the Xi Jinping and Tsai Ing-wen administrations tend to prioritize the principle of sovereignty, so friction is unavoidable if both sides strictly adhere to their respective political positions. This paper highlights three political processes. First, that there is greater room for shared interest and actual contacts between the two leaders than previously assumed. Second, that the talks through 2016 were far from steady due to the uncoordinated timing of compromise, which left the overarching political process unsettled. Third, I argue that the window of opportunity for restoring dialogue remains open. This paper then assumes two plausible trajectories for future cross-Strait relations. First, one can frame the current situation as a “lost opportunity.” But if the two sides are willing to reconcile and resume exchanges between the ARATS and the SEF, the “window of opportunity” may still be reopened. Second, if both sides find the status quo to be politically expedient, the current status of a short-term impasse may alternatively become more permanent and settle into a “new normal”.