為何政黨輪替？臺灣2016 年總統與立法委員選舉的觀察

Why Party Turnover? Observations ofTaiwan’s 2016 Presidential andLegislative Elections

本文從政黨的社會基礎、議題立場、馬英九總統的支持度、經濟情況以及政黨組織等幾個層面分析2016 年總統選舉，認為政黨輪替的主要原因是在這8 年之間，國民黨似乎失去了年輕、高教育程度的民眾支持。次要原因是總統支持度低迷，造成國民黨提名過程混亂。國民黨的組織功能不振則是另一個長久的問題。

This paper offers to explain why party turnover happened in Taiwan’s2016 presidential election. It investigates parties’ social base, issue positions,President Ma’s rating, economic situations and party organization. It is foundthat Kuomintang seems to lose young and high educated voters over the pasteight years. The second reason for party turnover is low presidentialpopularity that leads to chaotic nomination process.