勢不可免的衝突：從結構╱過程的辯證看美麗島事件之發生

An Unavoidable Conflict: An Explanation of the Kaohsiung Incident in Terms of the Dialectic of Structure and Process

本文嘗試超越動機論局部因果解釋的格局，以及結構與過程二分對立的觀點，改從結構與過程的辯證來說明：美麗島事件實係難以避免的衝突，儘管它不必然要發生在1979年12月10日的高雄。黨外陣營自1975年逐漸成形以來，即一直處於擴張的階段；國民黨推動的派系替代過程，更出乎意料地讓黨外在1977年選舉中獲得的席次大幅成長，從而改變了國民黨、地方派系與黨外三方賽局的結構。在這樣的情況下，國民黨1978年底因與美國斷交，未明示期限停止選舉，令黨外持續擴張的榮景突然中挫，頓使黨外感到強烈的挫折與不滿。在這個關鍵時刻，國民黨卻又突然放棄原先鎖定的逮捕對象黃順興，改抓余登發，希望藉此警告黨外勿輕舉妄動。不料這卻被黨外解讀成全面鎮壓的開始，因此在兼具強烈沮喪與憤慨的矛盾心態驅使下，冒險進行絕地反攻，利用社會╱互動的差異進行公開示威，成功踏出激進化的第一步。國民黨在內外諸般顧慮下不鎮壓的作為，不但使得黨外成功突破戒嚴令，從而改變了政治系統的結構，讓群眾運動成為此後可能的選項，更促成黨外相信自己的實力，著迷於自己建構出來的，國民黨不會鎮壓的「現實」。在國民黨不願恢復選舉，仍循著威權統治的慣性邏輯行動，黨外則樂於擁抱街頭的新舞台的情況下，雙方的對峙不斷升高。終於，當「象徵性的」權力使用已無法嚇阻黨外和群眾，這就逼得國民黨只能訴諸直接的武力鎮壓，以確保人民繼續相信它的權力，避免引發政權倒台的骨牌效應。

The suppression of Formosa magazine was an unavoidable consequence, although its happening on December 10, 1979 was a contingent rather than a necessary development. Going beyond popular intentional explanations and the antimony of structure and process, this paper explains this suppression by analyzing the dialectic of structure and process with a long-term view. When in 1978 the KMT postponed the election without a definite deadline for its restoration, the opposition camp, dangwai, which had won steadily expanding support since its formation in 1975, became very frustrated and angry. Consequently, dangwai perceived the arrest of Deng-fa Yu as a signal of total suppression. For self-protection, the group adopted the 'radical' response of demonstration, which succeeded by using the difference between interaction and society. Mass mobilization then became a possible action option and changed the structure of the political system. The KMT's inaction led dangwai to believe in its own power, and its members were attracted by the reality of nonsuppression that they themselves had produced. The conflict between the KMT and dangwai then escalated because the KMT would not agree to restore the election and dangwai willingly embraced the new arena of the streets. When the 'symbolic' use of power could not deter dangwai and its supporters, the KMT could not help suppressing with the direct use of physical violence, in order to assure the populace to believe its power, as well as to guard the regime's stability.