臺灣稻米受進口損害與救助之動態評估

Evaluation of the Dynamic Effects of Rice Import Policy and Subsidies on Taiwan Rice Industry

本文旨在評估稻米進口並配合政策調整的長短期衝擊效果，進而衡量等值的救助金額，以為受進口損害的救助。依乘數分析結果顯示：「關稅化」的進口擴大效應在第三年後將會逐年浮現，對生產面或消費面的影響均大於「限量進口」；若考慮相關條件的變動，「關稅化」的進口衝擊則較「限量進口」逐年遞減。另配合保價收購的調整，國內產量將再減少，而影響最大的是政府收購量，則糧食安全觀宜再檢討。將前述實證結果結合政策偏好函數，求算長期均衡的等值救助金額為4億5仟萬元，有助於稻農受進口損害的利益補償及政策改革的順利推動。

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the dynamic effects of rice importation on Taiwan rice industry. Furthermore, based on those effects, we apply a policy preference function to derive the equivalent subsidies of import relief that compensate the producers for their suffering from rice importation. The results of the multiplier analysis show that we will import more rice under the tariffication program than the minimum access program after three year. Relatively speaking, the former program have a greater negative effect on domestic rice economy in the future than the latter program. While allowing exogenous variables change over time, the results previously mentioned will be reversed. If policy of rice purchased by government with guarantee price make adjustment simultaneously, not only rice output level will fall, but also government procure rice quantity will fall sharply. It is worth to re-examine the implications of food security. According those effects, we calculate equivalent subsidy for offsetting injury is about 0.45 billions NT dollars in the long-run equilibrium. In view of political economics, the amount of equivalent subsidies could possibly make sure successful policy reform.