巴黎氣候談判與協議之分析

Analyses on the Paris Climate Negotiation and Agreement

2015年底，《公約》第21次締約方會議（巴黎會議），經過為期兩週的談判之後，終於對全球氣候治理達成歷史性協議。《巴黎協議》被譽為是第一個真正的全球氣候協議，為2020年之後的全球溫室氣體減量工作提供明確規範。本文透過質性研究，就有關巴黎氣候談判的過程和巴黎協議的內容進行研究，以了解《巴黎協議》對全球氣候治理的意義和國際氣候談判的運作。本文研究發現，以自主減排取代一體適用的方式，以及歐盟、美國和中國這三大國際氣候強權的支持，是《巴黎協議》能夠順利完成協商的重要原因。《巴黎協議》在2016年生效之後，國際社會應積極採取行動，並且繼續就《巴黎協議》的查核機制進行協商，確保各國落實《巴黎協議》，實現攝氏2度的氣候目標。

After two weeks of negotiation, the 2015 Paris Climate Conference ( COP21 ) finally passed a new global climate agreement. The Paris Agreement (PA) is deemed as the first true global climate deal to date, principled upon policies to reduce Greenhouse gas emission after 2020. In order to understand meanings and effects of the COP21 , as well as gaming of international climate negotiations, this paper adopts a qualitative research approach to analyze the processes of the COP21, and the contents of the PA. According to this research, establishment of an enduring regime (INDCs) instead of an one-off deal, as well as a strong support of the great powers in the international climate politics arena(i.e. the EU, US and China)were the two major reasons for the success of the COP21. Thereafter, all parties of the Convention would spare no effort to ensure that the PA be ratified and approved in 2016. Moreover, all parties would have to work out a global common framework that includes a set of common measurement and reporting procedures by the 2020s, in order to realize the long-term goal of the PA: maintaining the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.