顛覆中國？透視「亞投行債券」與「帶路基金」

Toppling China ? Perspectives of the AIIB Bonds and Belt-Road Fund

北京倡議的「亞洲基礎設施投資銀行」（簡稱：亞投行），在華府眼中，卻認為會挑戰到當今美國主導的全球經濟秩序。事實上，資本額度僅 1000 億美元的亞投行，無法撼動美國在全球金融政治中的主導地位。美國對亞投行戒慎恐懼，真是美元的地位受到威脅？亞投行的設立是否真能實踐人民幣國際化的目標？本文主張，中國應支持亞投行以美元發行（而非人民幣計價） 的「亞投行債券」，並同時設立「帶路基金」發行人民幣計價的「帶路基金債券」。如此，中國才得逐步降低對美國國債的過度依賴，掌握到貨幣主權，進而發展一個具深度、廣度、以及流動性的國債市場。

Beijing launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in order to offer financial resources for more investments to Asian countries in need. To some extent, the US$ 100 billion AIIB is not supposed to impose any serious threat to U.S. dominance in global finance. Why does the U.S. fear the China-led AIIB? Would the establishment of AIIB speed up decline of the dollar as an international currency? Is the AIIB likely to contribute tofurther internationalization of the renminbi (RMB) ? This paper contends hat China should encourage the AIIB to issue the “AIIB bonds” denominated in dollars rather than in RMB. Meanwhile, China has to establish a Belt-Road Fund(BR Fund)that is authorized to issue RMB- denominated “BR Fund bonds”. In doing so, China may well have a chance to reduce its over-dependence on U.S. Treasury Securities, regain monetary sovereignty, and develop a sufficiently large and liquid bond market.