ECFA 政治擴溢效應的實證初探

Assessing Political Spillover Effects of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement

本研究以為，兩岸關係的核心議題即為經濟合作擴溢到政治協議的爭論，原因在於其涉及政黨認同、族群意識、國家認同、臺海安全，以及經濟發展等各種複雜因素。鑑於經濟合作為當前臺灣兩岸關係進程的關鍵議題， 本研究以「新自由制度主義」（neo-liberal institutionalism）作為研究架構，分析在 2010 年簽訂「海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議」（Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, ECFA）之後，臺灣民眾對 ECFA 的經濟觀感及對於簽訂和平協議意願的影響，尤其是當民眾的政黨認同與經濟利益有所抵觸的時候，其政治態度是否有所變化。作者擷取「2012 年總統大選之後國內民眾對兩岸關係與大陸政策之觀點及變化」電話調查資料，藉由「交叉分析」（cross-tabulation analysis）與「有序勝算對數模型」（ordered logit models） 進行檢證。實證資料顯示，在控制其他變數的效應之下，對 ECFA 影響評價不同者對於簽訂和平協議的意願具有顯著差異；進一步考量政黨認同因素， 本文設立「政黨認同」與「ECFA 經濟影響」的交互作用變數，結果顯示當政黨認同與經濟利益呈現矛盾的選民，其簽訂和平協議的意願與獨立選民並認為 ECFA 無影響者，彼此並無顯著差異。就理論意涵來說，作者以為，在兩岸關係中，除了政黨認同為重要變數之外，民眾的經濟利益考量亦不可忽視，其重要性在臺灣經濟發展面臨瓶頸時逐漸顯現。在結論中，本文摘述分析要點，並提出研究發現與限制。

As far as cross-Strait relations are concerned, the core issue could be the argument about the spillover effects from economic cooperation toward political negotiations, because it closely relates to party identification, ethnic consciousness, national identity, cross-Strait security, and economic development. In light of the critical agenda of cross-Strait economic cooperation, this study employs neo-liberal institutionalism as the theoretical framework, and examines the impact of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) on the public attitudes toward economic evaluations and political negotiations, especially in relations to the conflicting differences between party identification and economic benefits. We take advantages of the“Public Opinions and Attitudes toward Cross- Strait Relations and China Policies since the 2012 Presidential Election”national telephone survey data, and the methodology involves two steps. The first approach is the use of cross-tabulation analysis, and the second employs the ordered logit models to test the simultaneous effects of economic evaluations and sociopolitical variables on the dependent variable. As hypothesized, the empirical findings reveal that there is a statistically significant difference between economic evaluations of the ECFA and the opinions of signing a cross-Strait peace agreement, caeteris paribus. Furthermore, the multiplicative terms of party identifications and economic evaluations are the significant factors associated with individual' attitudes toward political negotiations. More explicitly, the variable of economic evaluations retains a conditional connection with party identifiers and independents. The study by and large confirms the effects of party identifications and economic evaluations on the attitudes toward political negotiations. In the conclusion, we summarize the major findings and propose the implications of cross-Strait issues in Taiwan.