中俄關係 20 年：權力、利益、認知的回顧與前瞻

Review and Outlook of 20 Years of China-Russia Relation: Power, Interest and Identity

近廿年來中俄關係已從友好的、建設性的成為戰略性的夥伴關係，進入中俄前所未有之友好高峰期。實際上，中俄戰略協作夥伴關係是中俄的權力分布共識與利益匯集於因應美國霸權的威脅，由於美國對外戰略牽動中、俄關係的發展，中俄雙邊互動也影響著大國權力平衡關係。中俄戰略協作夥伴關係的本質除了有關平衡美國霸權外，既有的雙邊共識與追求利益張力似正影響著雙邊關係的發展。隨著美國單極的鬆動與中國的崛起，中俄關係逐漸偏離傳統權力平衡的意涵，轉為更為複雜的「制度性平衡」。因此，本文結合新現實主義、新自由主義、建構主義等三大學派不同面向的建制觀──權力、利益、認知的分析折衷主義和制度性平衡，去觀察二十年來的中俄關係，更能窺知中俄戰略協作夥伴關係發展的全貌。中俄雙邊反覆多變的關係變遷，中俄戰略夥伴關係本質的變化，以及中俄雙邊將如何建構未來關係， 都是本文所欲探討的課題。

n the last two decades, China-Russia relations have turned from “friendly” and “constructive,” to “strategic partnership” and reached an unprecedented peak. Indeed, the nature of the China-Russia strategic partnership is based on the consensus of power distribution in East Asia, while facing threats from the United States hegemony and bilateral economic interdependence. The diplomatic strategy of the United States not only affects the development and bilateral interaction of China-Russia relations, but also influences the balance of power among great powers of East Asia. The bilateral consensus to counterbalance U.S. hegemony and tension in pursuing state interests have deepened the China-Russia strategic partnership. With the wavering U.S. unipolar system and the rise of China as a world power, the relationship between China and Russia has gradually deviated from the traditional “balance of power” to “institutional balancing.” This paper analyzes the development of China-Russia relations in the past twenty years from an integrated model of “analytical eclecticism” and “institutional balancing” in terms of power, interest, and identity. Utilizing the perspectives of the three schools: neorealism, neo-liberal institutionalism, and social constructivism, the purpose is to understand the motives, trends and future developments of the China-Russia strategic partnership.