既患不均，可不患寡、不患貧乎？——從財政永續性與世代間不均的角度 看臺灣的年金改革

PENSION REFORM IN TAIWAN: AN APPLICATION OF GENERATIONAL ACCOUNTING METHOD

年金改革是當前臺灣的一個大困局:如果不改革，世代之間極度不公，且國家財政勢必崩壞，全民同受其害;但在目前官方的改革方案下，除了全民無不同感被剝奪，勞工與公教之間互不信賴，不同世代間也出現嚴重衝突，完全背離年改原本想帶來的社會和諧與穩定。臺灣並非特例，許多國家都同樣深陷年金危機之中，原因是既有的年金制度多採確定給付式的隨收隨付制，透過世代間的移轉功能，將未來的財務責任轉嫁給後代承擔。然而當這個制度所賴以存續的條件（特別是人口紅利與經濟成長）改變，年金制度的永續性面臨嚴峻的挑戰。臺灣的世代間不均嗎？國家財政可以永續嗎？政府年改方案有效嗎？有其他選擇嗎？針對這些疑問，本文採世代會計方法來加以探討。我們發現，目前臺灣的財政既不永續，世代也不公平，改革刻不容緩。但是，當前官方的年改方案缺少長久的目標及全盤的財務精算，未來勢需作一波又一波更嚴厲的改革。然而，若要根本解決，巨大的改革力道勢將引起社會所難以承受的動盪。我們認為，建立一個完整的年金改革方案的第一步是確立根本目標，並作總體精算;第二步是作通盤規劃，採多重政策:以修補年金制度替總體財政止漏，藉經濟成長強化各世代負擔能力，以提高基金報酬率來減少國家負債，藉增稅以完成財政平衡，並採漸進改革方式以減少社會衝擊;最後，政府應對民眾善盡溝通之責，使官民同心推動改革。

Pension reform has been a major issue in Taiwan in recent years, because of the huge public financial deficits and acute intergenerational inequity, both of which became exacerbated under rapid population aging and weakening economic growth. A series of questions are asked: (1) How serious is intergenerational inequity in Taiwan? (2) How severe is the long-term fiscal insolvency? (3) Does the proposedpension reformsolve these two problems? (4) What options do we have regarding pension reform? To address these questions, we apply the Generational Accounting method to 2014 NTA data and official population projections. We calculated the generational accounts under different scenarios. The results suggest that both fiscal insufficiency and intergenerational inequity are serious, calling for immediate response. However, the current government proposal is far from adequate, as there are only piecemeal and short-term considerations. Therefore, we suggest the government start with a comprehensive review of all social programs and public finance, and then enact a combination of fiscal, financial and economic policies to ensure the feasibility and effectiveness of the pension reform.