由多邊附加價值貿易分析兩岸貿易關係之演變

MULTI-LATERAL VALUE-ADDED TRADE AND CROSS-STRAIT TRADING RELATIONSHIP

本文參考目前國際上探討貿易財附加價值含量的分析趨勢，以歐盟所編製之多國投入產出表為基礎，建立一涵蓋兩岸及日、韓之區域間投入產出模型，估算出我國、中國大陸及日韓等國貿易財附加價值含量，以探討過去十餘年來我國與中國大陸產業間貿易關係的演變，並掌握我國產業發展面臨瓶頸之關鍵原因為何，提供相關機關及企業參考。此外，本文也利用附加價值出口占比之分解分析，探討我國、中國大陸及日韓貿易財在1995年到2011年間，造成其出口附加價值含量變動的關鍵因素為何;最後，本文更以指數分解法探討造成兩岸貿易之附加價值變動的關鍵驅動因素為何。本文研究結果發現，近20年來，中國大陸之貿易附加價值成長快速，遠超過臺灣及日韓，顯示其製造規模及生產技術都有長足的成長;此外，從雙邊貿易的情況來看，中國大陸進口的附加價值來自臺、日、韓的比重逐漸下降，然而臺灣不論出口或進口的附加價值，中國大陸的比重都呈現相當大的成長，這顯示臺灣愈來愈仰賴中國大陸的市場及其所生產的零組件，然而臺灣在大陸產業價值鏈中的地位卻愈來愈式微，這樣的發現值得我國在重新思考產業發展策略及定位時之參考。

This paper analyzes the evolution of industrial coopetition between Taiwan and China over the past two decades to figure out the key factors attributable to the current development bottlenecks encountered by the Taiwanese industries. We apply the concepts of value-added trade and use the world inputoutput tables compiled by the European Union to establish our inter-regional input-output models. Decomposition analyses are also carried out to identify the factors most responsible for driving the changes in value-added trade for both Taiwan and China. Our results indicate that China’s manufacturing value added embodied in trade has been growing quickly ascompared to Taiwan, Korea and Japan. From the bilateral trade point of view, the share of value added embodied in China’s imports sourced from Taiwan, Korea and Japan has been declining significantly. Conversely, Taiwan relies more and more heavily on the value-added sourcing from China. This development is certainly not a good sign for Taiwan, as it points to the fact that the competitive advantage position of Taiwanese firms i nChinahas been deteriorating.