政府政策與資訊揭露對生產決策影響之行為實驗

A Behavior Experiment of The Influence of Government Policy and Information Disclosure on Production Decision

為了解政府政策與資訊揭露對生產決策之影響，本研究設計一2×2×2 的經濟實驗，以觀察生產者是否會因政府價格政策實施與否和前期總產量資訊之有無而改變生產決策。此外，本文也一併探討產品生產遞延之有無，是否會影響生產決策。實驗結果顯示，受試者面對政府是否實施差額補貼政策時，生產決策的確會受影響；當政府實施差額補貼的價格政策時，加入生產的人數較多，其平均市場價格顯著地低於政府不實施差額補貼政策下的價格。而當實驗中揭露市場前期總產量資訊時，其平均市場價格高於市場不揭露前期總產量資訊下的價格，此實驗結果告訴我們，受試者會有效的利用前期總產量資訊，來做出較不至於過度生產的決策。而在本實驗中產品有無生產遞延之實驗結果分析，發現在多數的情況下，產品生產遞延年限為3 年下的市場交易價格與產品無生產遞延年限下的價格並無差異，意即生產決策不受產品生產遞延年限之影響。本實驗結果重要之政策意涵為歷史總產量資訊之透明化，有助於生產者形成對均衡價格之預期，使市場價格更接近理論值，提高市場效率。

To understand the influence of governmental policy and informationdisclosure on production decision, we design a 2×2×2 economic experimentto explore whether or not producers will change their production decisionwhen facing different price policy and information situation. In addition, wealso discuss if producers reach different decision when there existsproduction lag. The results show that deficiency payment policy doesencourage producers to produce more. Furthermore, the market price ishigher when producers can observe previous market quantity supplied.This implies that producers are able to use extra information to make betterdecision to improve their own profits. At last, our study finds that productionlag has no effect on production decision. The important implication of theresults of this study is that the provision of information contributes to theformation of producers’ expectation. Therefore, market prices get closer totheoretical values. This, furthermore, increases market efficiency.