臺灣石斑魚產業運銷通路分析與市場需求預測

The Analysis of Market Channel and Demand Forecasting of Taiwan Grouper Industry

本研究為瞭解國內石斑魚運銷通路與運銷成本的情況，同時預測未來國內市場對石斑魚的需求，乃透過問卷調查方式，以及運用灰色預測理論來進行分析。運銷通路的問卷進行係以2012 年為基準年，總計回收47 份問卷，結果發現養殖戶主要銷售給販運商與批發商，顯見通路結構仍為少數販運商所控制，出口方面約占總產量的72%，國內消費市場約占28%。在通路益本分析方面，則係以批發商的益本比1.1864 為最高，加工廠1.0966 次之。另外，在市場需求預測研究方面，透過灰色預測模型結果顯示，臺灣石斑魚的需求量呈現逐年上升之趨勢，增加率介於10-20%。基此，政府與業界可積極改善石斑魚的運銷效率，以及協助養殖漁民與通路業者持續開拓石斑魚內需市場，讓國內消費者更多認識石斑魚的特性與營養價值，強調產品優勢以提升國內市場對石斑魚之需求，擴大國內石斑魚市場的永續發展空間。

This study examines the current grouper marketing channels inTaiwan to understand the mode of the grouper supply chain, and applythe Grey Prediction Theory to forecast the market demand. Wecollected secondary data, interviews and questionnaires were conductedfrom Taiwan grouper marketing channels. Empirical results of 47questionnaires survey based on year 2012 as follows: The shippers stilladvantaged in the marketing channels, and consumers benefited fromabound information and logistics facilities with various marketingchannels. The proportion of export of is approximately 72% whiledomestic consumption of is approximately 28%. For benefit-cost analysisamong marketing channels, results shows that shipper’s benefit-cost ratiois the highest with 1.1864, and processing factories is about 1.0966.Furthermore, the results of grouper demand forecasting shows that thedemand for grouper appeared to rise annually, increasing rate rangedfrom 10-20%. Meanwhile, the fisheries authority must also make activeefforts to help develop other overseas markets and expand the domesticmarket, providing guidance for industrial upgrades and increase the valueof grouper products. These action steps will help the Taiwan grouperindustry achieve sustainable development.