進口穀物價格上漲對台灣農業及總體經濟之影響

Agricultural and Macroeconomic Impact of Rising Imported Grain Prices on Taiwan

近年來國際原油價格大幅提高，糧食作物歉收以及先進國家開始大幅增加生質能源使用，導致對玉米、甘蔗、油菜等作物需求上升，加以國際海運運價上漲，因此，帶動國際各種原物料價格上漲。由於這些國際穀物價格上漲，將使得高度依賴這些原料進口的台灣之民生物價和畜牧業生產受到影響，故本文分別利用產業關聯（I-O）模型與可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型來估計對台灣總體經濟以及民生物價水準之可能影響。I-O 模型在物價可完全轉嫁之設定下，顯示當進口玉米、大豆、小麥價格分別在不同上漲幅度情境設定下，玉米對於加權平均國內銷售物價或民生消費物價的衝擊較高於小麥、大豆。而CGE模型模擬結果因必須考慮需求面的反應與資源供需之調整效果，因此對於加權平均民生消費物價之衝擊幅度有部分為生產者所自行吸收，惟玉米對於加權平均國內銷售物價或加權平均民生消費物價的衝擊仍高於小麥、大豆，因此，對於整體國內銷售物價及民生消費物價之衝擊會比IO 模型分別小0.018 至0.067 及0.002 至0.013 個百分點。

The grain prices are the greatest concerns of Taiwanese residents.The hiking prices seriously impacted the Taiwanese farming industry aswell as its consumer prices as both of them are highly dependent of theimported foods and crops. Using Input-Output (I-O) Model andComputable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model, this study estimates theimpacts of imported grain prices on Taiwanese Macroeconomics andconsumer price index. Assuming the food prices are fully transferable,the I-O Model shows the import prices of corn, soybean and wheatincreased. The impacts of corn price on consumer prices and weightedaverage domestic prices are higher than those of soybean and wheatprices. CGE Model shows the same results that the impact of corn’sprices is higher than those of soybean and wheat, but the ratio is smallerthan the result using the I-O analysis. That’s due to the adjustment ofdemand-supply side, therefore potion of the impacts absorbed byproducer in weighted average consumer price index.