台灣能源安全評估

Energy Security Assessment of Taiwan

經濟發展對能源的依賴甚深，而確保能源的穩定供應也一向是各國經濟發展政策中最重要的一環。當面臨供應短缺的風險升高，或是購買的成本大幅提升時，將使其得以維持一定成長目標的難度增加，甚至導致經濟的衰退。這種經濟成長受到明顯負面衝擊的現象可能在某種程度上已反映在其「能源安全度」的變化上面。本文從預防及適應的角度來看待所謂的能源安全度，以經濟承載能量為重心，並以台灣為例，檢視台灣歷年幾個時點的能源安全狀況。透過對供應量中斷及價格上漲的模擬，本文發現相對於1990 年代，台灣2000 年以後之能源安全度已明顯下降，經濟體系承載能源供應中斷及價格上漲衝擊的能量下降了。這點與台灣之產業結構一直無法擺脫朝向能源密集產業結構發展的方向有關，也與世界各主要國家發展的趨向背道而馳，是一個相當值得關注的現象。未來台灣的能源及產業政策如果無法做更大的調整，將越來越無法承受可能面臨的衝擊。

Recent years have seen increasing attention being paid to the issueof energy security. While Taiwan relies heavily on imported energy,constantly assessing its energy security situation has become anextremely important task of the government agencies. While traditionalenergy security indicators either take only the supply side into account, orconsider only part of the demand-side effect, the important interactionsamong the players of the whole economy have largely been neglected.This study makes use of the ORANI-G model, a famous and typicalcomputable general equilibrium model, to assess the energy security forTaiwan. We distinguish sources of imported energy by making suitablechanges to the model and assigning necessary substitution elasticityvalues. Simulations have been focused on the changes in energy priceand quantity of energy supply. Our simulation results show that when aregion or a specific oil-exporting country raises oil price, GDP will beaffected negatively. In the case of oil supply disruption, reducing the oilsupply from Saudi Arabia has the greatest effect on Taiwan’s economy,since most of imported oil in Taiwan is from Saudi Arabia. The simulationresults from the above analysis have also been used to modify theShannon-Weiner index to create a new energy indicator to assess theenergy security for Taiwan. The results show that the higher the importenergy dependency is, the greater the impact Taiwan has to endure for arising energy price or energy supply disruption.