生化戰防禦資源之樂透配置

A Lottery Allocating Mechanism of Defense Resources for Biological and Chemical Weapons

各國現有防禦體系能應付自然發生之生化災害或小規模之生化武器攻擊；卻未能應付未來超強威力之新型生化武器或大規模攻擊。因此，本研究探討在生化戰防禦資源短缺之情況下，是否有最適之配置（allocate）方式，以求人們福祉之極大化。在這些攸關生死之資源配置的課題上，夫妻情侶必然在乎對方是否獲得，父母亦必然在乎子女是否獲得；資源配置的機制若是忽略此種偏好，將有所缺失。本文提出創新的集團抽籤（bundlelottery）機制，乃在公平之原則下，讓小群體成員勝出之聯合機率更多樣化且可自由選擇；有如在商品空間中間斷（discrete）而有限的商品組合外增加各種新組合。對國民而言，是傳統抽籤（lottery）之柏拉圖改善（Pareto improvements），因此，比傳統抽籤更適合來配置有限的生化戰防禦資源。本文並以台美日為例，模擬在不同生物戰防禦資源供給水準下，其最適之配置。研究結果發現集團抽籤可行而且擁有下列特性：1.可讓人們選擇提高或維持關係密切的親人小群體中的所有人皆勝出之聯合機率。2.每個人中簽機率相同，人人平等。3.能顯著降低生化武器攻擊損失所帶給一國國民之負效用。

Current defense systems in many countries can handle small-scalebiological attacks as well as biological and chemical disasters. However,none of them can handle a large-scale biological warfare. Therefore, thisstudy investigates if there is a sound allocation mechanism to deal withshortages of biological defense resources to maximize citizens’ welfares.When allocate these life-and-death crucial resources, people must carewhether their family members and lovers obtain the resources or not. Amechanism that ignores these preferences is not likely to be a good one.This study develops a new mechanism, the bundle lottery. It allowspeople to choose among more jointly success rates of members of asmall group, while maintaining everyone’s success rate being equal.Thus it is a Pareto improvement of the traditional lottery. Therefore, it ismore suitable than the traditional lottery to allocate the defenseresources. This study also uses Taiwan, America, and Japan asexamples to illustrate the defense resources allocations under differentsupply levels. We found that the bundle lottery is feasible and it has thefollowing great properties: 1.it allows people to choose among morejointly success rates of members of a small group, 2.everyone’s successrate is equal, and 3.can significantly reduce the disutility caused bybiological attacks.