農業天然災害產物損失對經濟影響之區域投入產出分析

The Economic Impact from Agricultural Products Loss Caused by Natural Disasters and Regional Input-Output Analysis in Taiwan

我國農業國內生產毛額所占比重雖已不及2%，惟農業仍為支援其他產業發展的重要產業，不過農業生產過程中卻經常受到不確定天然災害的影響，導致產物、農田、設施等方面損失，農業一旦遭遇天然災害損失使生產下滑，透過產業關聯效果傳遞，不但影響整體經濟的產出及就業，更導致農產品價格波動，影響整體民間消費。另一方面，國內各區域的農業生產受到自然條件上的差異，以致各區域間農業發展差距的情形甚為明顯，一旦遭逢天然災害，各區域生產活動所致之直接與間接衝擊效果亦不盡相同，對於各產業的影響更為不同。因此，本文試圖結合Miller 與Blair(1985)供給面投入產出模型及區域投入產出分析方法，評估近三年農業天然災害產物損失對於全國及各區域可能產生的經濟層面影響。

Although Taiwan’s agricultural production only accounts for less than 2%of total GDP, agriculture industry still plays an important role to support thedevelopment of other industries. However, during the production process,agriculture industry often suffers loss, in final production result and farmingfield and faciclity, caused by uncontrollable natural disasters. Andtransferred by the industrial linkage effect, this kind of production decreaseimpact will be seen on overall economy development output andemployment in that particular region; moreover, this will also createagricultural product price fluctuation which will inlfuence final consumerconsumption. From the other aspect, in Taiwan we observed some obviousgap already exist in each regions’ agricultural production which resulted fromthe differences of the natural environment. Once these uncontrollablenatural disasters happen, the direct and indirect impact on agriculturalactivities will also vary from region to region. Therefore, in this paper we tryto apply Miller and Blair (1985) input-output model in supply side and theapporach of regional input-output analysis in order to evaluate all possibleeconomic impact from produciton loss caused uncontrolable naturaldisasters for the last three years in Taiwan.