城際鐵路列車時刻表可靠度分析

Analysis of Timetable Reliability for Intercity Railway Systems

一份安排得當的時刻表不僅應能滿足旅運需求，並且在遭受到外生延滯事件擾動時，亦能維持良好的可靠度，因此如何評估時刻表是否穩定，為鐵路業者所面臨的重要課題。在各種評估時刻表可靠度的方法中，統計方法僅適用於實際營運的時刻表，解析方法則難以考量列車運轉細節，因此，本研究發展一套模擬模式，能夠考量隨機延滯事件擾動的影響，分析一份時刻表的可靠度情況，此外也能應用於比較時刻表調整前後的可靠度變化。本研究最後以一實際案例，透過本研究發展的模式探討各種因素對時刻表可靠度的影響，實證結果發現模式評估的結果均符合先驗知識。

A well-designed timetable should not only be able to satisfy travel demand,but also be able to remain reliable when exogenous delays happen. Thus, how toanalyze whether a timetable is stable becomes an important issue for railwayoperators. Among all methods to evaluate timetable reliability, statistical methodsare only suitable for existing timetables, whereas analytical models can notconsider the detailed train operation rules. Thus, this study develops a simulation model to analyze timetable reliability, while taking into account the influence ofrandom delays. In addition, this model can be applied to compare the reliabilityvariation between existing and revised timetables. Finally, a real railway system isemployed to investigate the influence of various factors on reliability. Theempirical analysis shows that the results comply with our prior knowledge.