中國大陸的經濟風險：財政債務相關議題評述

Economic Risks in P.R. China: A Fiscal Perspective

作為一項具文獻回顧評論性質的介紹（state of the field），本文仍先建構一個簡單模型，說明中國大陸當前經濟情勢，聚焦於債務、財政收支、經濟發展與金融變數之間的關聯性，並以實際數據評估其風險。之後以此為主軸，分析在新冠疫情下，四個中國大陸當前最重要的經濟風險議題，分別是發展方向由單純經濟成長轉為多重目標，政府干預所造成的金融市場扭曲及其影響，新的「雙循環」戰略下帶路倡議與產業升級的關係及其負擔，以及政府財政行為如何影響所得分配。最後以螞蟻金服首次公開發行與農村扶貧等部分近期事件，驗證既有學術文獻論點並討論如何持續進行觀察分析。

As a state of the field, this paper constructs a simple model to explain the relationship among debt, fiscal deficits, economic growth, and financial variables, and then uses Chinese statistics to evaluate economic and financial risks in P.R. China. From the empirical evidence, we can analyze four important issues: transition from growth only to multiple economic goals; financial market distortions caused by government interventions; the burdens of the Belt and Road Initiative for industrial upgrade under Xi’s new “dual circulation” strategy; and the impact of fiscal policies on China’s income inequality. The above arguments from the literature cited in this paper are also helpful in explaining some recent events, including the Ant Group’s IPO and China’s poverty relief strategy.