九七主權轉移以來北京對香港管治策略的演變

The Evolution of Beijing’s Governance Strategy Towards Hong Kong Since the Transfer of Sovereignty in 1997

從1997年主權轉移至今，中國與香港的關係歷經波折，尤其自2019年初開始的反送中運動，香港公民社會抗爭此起彼落，加之隔年初爆發武漢肺炎疫情，市民對中央和特區政府的不滿和反彈與日俱增。北京方面從最初幕後操盤到推出《港區國安法》，引發全球高度關注，特別是香港的「一國兩制」會否走向終結。本文旨在探析自1997年主權轉移以來中國和香港的關係，首先從國際關係的脈絡審視作為「一國兩制」之國際法理基礎的《中英聯合聲明》，繼而從理論和實證層面，分析與梳理北京對港管治策略的演變，以及實施《港區國安法》對香港內部以至其國際地位的沙盤推演和影響，以期預視香港自身和中港關係的未來發展。

Since the transfer of sovereignty in 1997, the relationship between China and Hong Kong has been experiencing various ups and downs, especially since the Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill Movement that began in early 2019. The struggles of Hong Kong civil society broke out one after another. In addition to the COVID-19 epidemic that happened early 2019, dissatisfaction and backlash against the Central and HKSAR Governments were increasing on a daily basis. From exerting control behind-the-scenes at the beginning to introducing the “Hong Kong National Security Law,” Beijing has aroused widespread global concern, especially whether Hong Kong’s “One Country, Two Systems” would come to an end. As a result, this article aims to explore the relationship between China and Hong Kong since the transfer of sovereignty in 1997. It first examines the Sino-British Joint Declaration, which serves as the foundation of “one country, two systems,” from the context of international relations. Then it analyzes and sorts out the evolution of Beijing’s governance strategy towards Hong Kong from both the theoretical and empirical levels, as well as describe the scenarios and the impact of the “Hong Kong National Security Law” on Hong Kong and its international status after its implementation. The article closes with a view to looking ahead in the future development of Hong Kong and its relations with China.