臺灣長期照顧保險的費率預測與調整規劃

The Projecting and Adjusting for the Premium Rate of Long-term Care Insurance in Taiwan

社會保險的財務處理方式基本上分為三種，隨收隨付、完全提存準備、部分提存準備。相對於商業保險，社會保險因其永續經營特性，通常不需要完全提存準備。本文以臺灣規劃中的長期照顧保險為例，實際進行長期費率規劃的模擬設算，並評估各方案的可行性。本研究以臺灣規劃中的長期照顧保險為例，採取模擬分析方法，討論費率規劃的原則，並實際進行費率規劃的模擬設算。本研究根據財務處理方式、平衡期間、費率上升幅度、準備金額度、人口成長率等條件，設計七種費率規劃方案進行費率規劃、費率調升幅度、保險費水準、累積準備金等模擬分析。本研究結論：根據（一）部分提存準備、（二）費率調整頻率、（三）費率調整幅度、（四）世代公平性、（五）基金累積規模等指標評估，比較合適的費率規劃為C與F方案。C方案的主要費率規劃條件是：（一）10年平衡；（二）3年調整一次費率。F方案主要條件為（一）10年平衡；（二）3年精算一次費率；（三）精算費率與現行費率差距5%即調整費率；（四）第3年起，準備金不低於3個月。

The financial scheme of the social insurance involves three models: pay as you go, full funding and partial funding. In contrast with the commercial insurance, the social insurance seldom takes the financial model of full funding because of its sustainable operation. This study took the 'Long-term Care Insurance' plan in Taiwan as the example, and applied the simulation analysis method to make simulative calculation programs of the premium rates in order to explore the principles underlying such these programs. Base on the dimensions of the financial model, the duration for financial balance, the premium rate growth, the funding amount, and the population growth rate, this study designed 7 simulative programs of the premium rate. Tables 1-4 showed the outcomes of programs A-G, including: the premium rate, the growth of the premium rate, the level of premium fee and the accumulated amount of funding. According to the financial model of partial funding, the frequency of premium rate adjustment, the growth of premium rate adjustment, intergenerational justice, and the accumulation of funding amount, program C and F were the more appropriate ones. The conditions of the premium rate in program C included: (1) 10 year-long duration for financial balance; (2) premium rate adjusted every 3 years. The conditions in program F included: (1) 10 year-long duration of financial balance; (2) premium rate adjusted every 3 years; (3) premium rate adjusted depending on the gap more than 5% between the calculated one and the existing one; (4) after the 3rd year, the funding amount should be able to pay more than the expenditure of 3 months.