整合灰色預測模型與S 型成長模型探測產品生命週期策略

Integrating grey prediction models with S-shaped growth models for exploring product life cycle strategies

S 型成長模型結合產品生命週期理論，可將產品銷售的成長過程予以模型化，從而擬定對應的行銷策略。然而，現行文獻對於在少數據的情況下如何運用S 型成長模型，著墨甚少。雖然有些研究基於充足的數據，運用S 型成長模型與時間序列分析法，進行成長過程的預測分析，另有研究特為處理少數據的時間序列分析，運用灰色預測模型進行預測分析，並比較不同模型的表現績效。由此可知，在這兩大類型文獻之間所存在的重大缺口，就是如何使S 型成長模型可以處理少數據的時間序列。針對這個課題，本研究提出一套可行的解決方案，整合灰色預測模型與S 型成長模型，有助於探測產品生命週期策略之應用，並可進而幫助管理者進行劇本規劃。此外，特以兩個旅客人次的數據案例，展示本提案的實用性，並提出後續研究與實務應用的建議。

Integrating S-shaped growth model with product life cycle theory is a favorable way to perform modeling growth process of product sales as well as formulating the corresponding marketing strategy. Some works use the S-shaped growth model and time series analysis to conduct predicting for growth process with sufficient data, others utilize grey prediction models to compare performance of prediction models suffered insufficient data. However, current literature is lacking to address the issues of how to employ S-shaped growth models in the situation of a small data set. Hence, this paper proposes a useful solution which incorporates grey prediction models with S-shaped growth models to help decision makers explore product life cycle strategies in order to achieve an effective scenario planning. Additionally, two examples are presented to illustrate the application of the proposed solution.