少子高齢化と経済成長－－イノベーション政策としての自由貿易

少子高齡化與經濟成長－－技術創新政策之自由貿易（Population Aging and Economic Growth: The Effect of Free Trade Agreements on Innovation）

本論文的目的是探討少子高齡化透過技術創新對經濟成長的影響。主要內容包括，一、利用國際間數據，分析高齡少子化及其所伴隨的人口減少對經濟成長的影響；二、以日本的長期數據，檢視人口成長率與經濟成長率之間的關係；三、推算日本1980 年之後的資本係數與勞動投入係數，探討技術創新所扮演之角色；四、分析少子高齡化透過技術創新對經濟成長的影響。本論文之結論為，全球化的推進將會促進技術創新，在伴隨人口減少的少子高齡化社會，對於經濟的持續成長有其重要性。

This paper analyzes the impact of the declining fertility rate and aging society on the economic growth through innovation. The purposes of this paper include, firstly, analyzing global data to determine how the declining fertility rate and aging society and its resulting depopulation impact the economy; secondly, studying the relationship between the rate of population growth and the rate of economic growth using long-term data; thirdly, estimating the capital coefficient and the unit labor requirement in 1980s and thereafter, and discussing the roles of innovation; fourthly, analyzing how the declining fertility rate and aging society will impact economic growth through innovation. The principal conclusion of this paper is that, for a hyper-aged and depopulating society, globalization will facilitate innovation and is considered essential for maintaining sustainable economic growth.