再審羅哥斯基模式：台灣的貿易政策與國內政治結盟1996-2008

Rethinking the Rogowski Model: Taiwan's Trade Policy and Domestic Political Alignment 1996-2008

2008國民黨執政之後，兩岸政治經濟關係獲得長足發展，2010年簽訂兩岸經濟合作架構協議之後，代表了兩岸在政經合作上的里程碑。然而，在之後不斷的學界辯論、反對黨杯葛以及街頭抗議之中，我們亟需重新審視國家貿易政策與國內政治結盟之間的複雜關係，以釐清經濟政策是否得以實施、是否產生正向效果的假設。本文章以實證方法分析經濟自由化對於國內政治結盟產生的影響，經過一連串的統計方法檢證之後，本研究提供對於後續台灣貿易政策的建議，並且討論國內政治結盟對於貿易政策制定的關鍵地位，全文主要論點為，若是貿易政策無法妥善處理因為自由化而受害的經濟族群，則其政治阻力將超越經濟考量，狀似不合理，其實是政經互動的必然現象。

The political economic relationship between Taiwan and China moved in a positive direction after the KMT returned to power in 2008. The launching of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) in September 2010 symbolized the prospect of economic and political reconciliation across the Taiwan Strait. Several years later, in light of the scholarly debate and waves of street protests by the opposition party and dissenters, it has become apparent that scholars ought to reexamine the validity of Rogowski's model of trade policy and domestic political alignment, specifically with regard to its ability to explain the transformation of cross-strait political and economic interaction. This study conducts an empirical analysis of the effects of economic liberalization on domestic political alignments and offers some hypotheses using updated data for testing. Highlighting certain policy implications with regard to disputes surrounding the ECFA issue, the study provides a new perspective for explaining cross-strait economic interaction and its implications for domestic politics.