宅經濟概念股股價之季節效應研究－－以線上遊戲公司為例

The Seasonal Effects on the Share Prices of Stay at Home Economic Concepts: The Case of Online Game Companies

宅經濟在一片低迷之中逆勢創造商機，例如電視購物、網路線上拍賣、線上遊戲均是逆勢成長的案例，尤其線上遊戲業的表現最是亮眼。因此，本研究將以線上遊戲業為研究對象，蒐集彙整相關文獻，最後選定網龍（3083）、鈊象（3293）、智冠（5478）、大宇資（6111）與橘子（6180）共五檔股票。研究期間為2010年1月8日～2014年3月7日共215週，以了解其股價之寒暑假季節效應。結果發現五檔股票皆具有顯著的「寒暑假」季節效應，報酬率皆為負數，有利多出盡的現象股價提前反應。其中鈊象在寒暑假前的報酬是正數，提前反應寒暑假季節效應；大宇資在暑假前的報酬是正數，提前反應暑假季節效應。

Home economic industry, such as TV shopping network, online auction, and online games reverses the tendency towards recession and create business opportunities. Especially, the online gaming industry has the best performance. Therefore, this study will focus on the online gaming industry and select Chinese Gamer, International Games System, Soft-World, Softstar, and Gamania five companies as the research objects. This study employs 215 weekly data, and the time span is January 8th, 2010 to March 7th, 2014 in order to understand the seasonal effects of winter and summer vacation on the stock returns of five companies. The results show that the seasonal effects of winter and summer vacation on the stock returns of five companies are statistically significant and all of the stock returns of five companies are negative, and show the ＂sell on good news＂ phenomenon. That is to say, the stock prices react before the good news. International Games System has the positive stock return before winter and summer vacation. In other words, the effects of winter and summer vacation early react on the stock return. However, Softstar has the positive stock return before sum-mer vacation. That is, the effect of summer season early reacts on the stock return.