北京維護「核心利益」及其戰略意涵剖析

Analysis of Beijing's Defense of Its ＂Core Interests＂ and Its Strategic Implications

隨著中共的權力穩步上升，北京與華府在亞太區域秩序主導權競爭日益激烈，兩國相互期望的角色越來越不穩定。對於北京來說，維持和平發展環境是實現「中國夢」之必經之路，惟不能犧牲國家「核心利益」。近年北京「核心利益」內涵不斷廣化，加大南海維權力度，為中共處理周邊問題設定底線。中共藉由連結「核心利益」與「新型大國關係」論述，期使既有霸權給予喊起強權相應的大國地位。本文擬由結構現實主義出發，剖析中共維護「核心利益」內涵之戰略意涵，並探討其對美「中」關係及亞太區域秩序的影響。本文認為，當前北京維持美「中」關係穩定發展的重要性，遠高於國家統一之「核心利益」。北京倡議建構「中」美新型大國關係，期使既有霸權給予崛起強權相應的大國地位。研究發現，在實踐中，中共將臺美軍售視為雙邊議題，有效阻止美國對臺重大軍售，「核心利益」似已發揮示警與外交槓桿效果。習近平主政以來，北京對外戰略趨於主動，強化中共在國際結構的強權地位，削弱美國的經貿影響力。儘管美國推行「再平衡戰略」試圖鞏固既有優勢地位，惟美國外交重心仍在中東，且相關政策調整及投入資源有限，或將被北京的區域影響力弱化。長遠而言，未來美「中」兩強在亞太區域秩序之變化，將取決於經濟及軍事實力。

The steadily rising power of China has intensified competition between Beijing and Washington for control of the Asia-Pacific regional order and led to growing instability in the mutually expected roles of the two countries. For Beijing, maintaining a peaceful development environment is a necessary path to realizing the ＂China Dream,＂ but not one to be taken at the expense of the country's ＂core interests.＂ In recent years, Beijing has therefore steadily broadened the substance of its ＂core interests,＂ bolstering the defense of its rights in the South China Sea and setting a baseline for how it handles peripheral issues. China has also linked its ＂core interests＂ and ＂new model of major country relations＂ treatises in an attempt to achieve a dominant country status commensurate with its rising power. This study analyzes, from a structural realist perspective, the changes in how China's defends its ＂core interests,＂ their Strategic implications, and the impact on the US-China relationship and Asia-Pacific regional order. The study argues that Beijing places greater importance on maintaining the stable development of US-China relations than on its ＂core interests＂ of national unification. Beijing has proposed the establishment of a new model of major country relations between China and the US to achieve a dominant country status commensurate with its rising power. The study found that, in practice, China views US arms sales to Taiwan as a bilateral issue. It has effectively prevented major US arms sales to Taiwan and apparently achieved warning and diplomatic leverage effects in the defense of its ＂core interests.＂ Beijing has also adopted a more proactive external strategy since Xi Jinping came into power. These initiatives aim to consolidate China's power position in the international structure and weaken the economic and trade influence of the United States. Although the US is promoting a ＂rebalancing strategy＂ to consolidate its current dominant position, its diplomatic center of gravity remains in the Middle East. Moreover, due to related policy adjustments and limited resources, the US is likely to be weakened by Beijing's regional influence. Over the long term, future changes in the Asia-Pacific regional order will be determined by the respective economic and military strengths of the US and China.