後冷戰時期東南亞戰略操作的多重困局：中國vs東協

Multiple Dilemmas in Strategic Operations in Post-Cold War Southeast Asia: China vs ASEAN

後冷戰時期東南亞地區的安全戰略態勢，存在共同的特徵，即各方都面臨著安全戰略操作時的多重困局。在國際權力競逐狀態下，東協各國顯得相對弱勢、內部整合困難加上強權介入，幾乎成為一種宿命。而中國喊起需要穩定、安全的周邊，但大國喊起所引發鄰國的不安，卻難以擺脫。事實上，東協與中國的戰略操作都在美國海洋秩序約制之下，形構其相對應的作為。而在地緣限制下，戰略選擇的約制來自於國際權力結構，也來自於決策階層的安全認知與國內政治勢力的影響，此點則是思考東南亞戰略的本質時重要的檢驗。

In the post-Cold War period, a constant feature in Southeast Asia's strategic and security and environment has been that all states face multiple strategic and security dilemmas. In terms of international power competition, all of the ASEAN states are relatively weak. Internal integration problems and great power intervention seem to destine them to remain in weak positions. At the same time, while China's needs stability and security on its periphery in order to rise, its rising power has created insecurity in neighboring countries. In fact, the strategic operations of both ASEAN states and China are constrained by and respond to the US maritime order. In examining strategic behavior in Southeast Asia, it is important to consider strategic choice is constrained by the international distribution of power, the security perceptions of decision-makers, and domestic political factors.