台灣社會福利民意的測量

Measuring Public Opinion toward Social Welfare in Taiwan

政策與偏好的關聯是政治學的重要關懷之一。過去對於政策與投票的研究偏重個體的層級，並未考慮整體層次的政策民意的穩定性。本文利用2007年至2013年所收集的電話訪問以及網路民調資料，以多層次貝氏統計模型加上事後加權（MRP），估計各縣市民眾對於增加或是減少社會福利預算的偏好，克服縣市的觀察值不一所造成的不確定性。結果發現，雖然民意的穩定程度並不高，但是這個方法可以提供相當可信的估計。各縣市的社福預算民意似乎在2010年之後傾向緊縮，意味著在社福預算一直增加的情況下，民眾開始持保留的態度。

Policy representation has been one of the foremost topics in political science. The pre-condition is the stability of policy preferences. While individual opinions may be influenced by many sources, scholars have found the macro level of opinion to be stable. The disaggregation of survey data may lead to the problem of a large standard deviation being encountered due to the small number of observations in some counties.Therefore, multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) is used to estimate public opinion toward budget spending on social welfare between 2007 and 2013. These MRP estimates are validated. However, this data analysis shows mixed results regarding the stability of public opinion in Taiwan.