我國上市櫃公司赴大陸投資的決定因素與獲利性研究

The Determinants and Profitability of Taiwan’s Listed Companies’ Investment in China

本文探討我國上市櫃公司不同的對外與大陸投資決策對母公司獲利性的影響。本文將投資決策對公司獲利的影響視為內生，也就是投資決策受公司特性因素的影響。同時，我們進一步假設公司的投資決策是分兩階段完成，第一步會先決定是否進行海外投資，一旦確定後，再決定是否赴大陸投資。因為有兩層的投資決策，本文以延伸的Heckman’s Two Stage Method 進行估計。實證結果顯示，在投資決策的影響因素方面，對第一層赴海外投資而言，規模愈大、國際化程度愈高、愈勞力密集的公司愈傾向赴海外投資；對第二層赴大陸投資的決策，影響因素也類似，只是公司規模不再是重要影響因素。至於獲利的影響因素方面，第一類「赴大陸投資的公司」與第二類「未赴大陸但赴其他國家投資的公司」的利潤型態較類似，長期負債對獲利都有負向顯著影響，總資產也傾向負向影響，至於第三類「未從事任何海外與大陸投資公司」的利潤型態則與前兩類不同，總資產與研發支出都呈現顯著負向影響。而三類公司的績效比較部分，第一類公司的平均預期資產報酬率雖略高於第二類，第二類公司又高於第三類公司，但三類公司兩兩之間平均預期資產報酬率的差距並未達統計上的顯著性。

The paper studies the profitability of Taiwan’s listed companies with and without the investment in China. Unlike past studies which deal with the decision of investment in overseas and China as an exogenous process in the system, the decision is assumed to be endogenous in this paper. That is, the decision making of the investment in these two areas is assumed to be affected by the firm’s characteristic factors. Besides this, this decision marking is further assumed to be a two layer processes. The first layer is the decision whether it should invest overseas. Once the first layer’s decision is made, the second layer is whether the firm should invest in China. This two-layer decision process allows us to compare the performances of firms of three investment types, which include ‘the firms with investment in China’, ‘the firms without investing in China, only investing in other countries’ and ‘the firms without investing overseas, nor investing in China’. Because of this model specification, we use the extended Heckman’s two-stage method to estimate the model. Though the studies on the performance of Taiwanese companies’ overseas investment have been abundant for the past few years, most of them focus on firms’ investment in China only. Neglecting firms’ investment in other area may cause a self-selection bias, which distorts the influence of factors that affecting the firms’ performance. Our two-layer-decision and three-investment-type model helps us avoid the bias and explore the issue more accurately and broadly than other studies. Our empirical results regarding the determinants of investing overseas and China are as follows. With respect to the investment in overseas, firm size and export ratio show positive influence on the decision of investment, while capital labor ratio shows negative effect. Next, with respect to the investment in China, determinants are similar except that firm size is no longer significant. Our results regarding the profit performance reveal that for ‘the firms with investment in China’ and ‘the firms without investing in China, only investing other countries’, long term liability ratio has a significantly negative impact on profitability, whereas total asset, RandD expenditure show a negative effect on profitability for ‘the firms without investing overseas, nor investing in China’. As for the performance comparison among firms of these three investment types, the differences are insignificant. This result implies that there are still considerable individual differences among the firms of the same investment type.