以詮釋結構模式法探討直航對高雄總體發展影響之策略

Using ISM to Explore the Strategies for Possible Impacts on Kaohsiung’s Grand Development from Cross-strait Direct Shipping

複雜性是管理公共事務問題的共同點，複雜性不只來自於問題系統，更來自於人類的心智。在各種處理複雜系統的方法中，互動管理(Interactive Management, IM)奠基於結構基礎學派(Structure-Based School)，符合複雜科學的假設，是一種針對複雜事務所開創的管理系統，以求真正解決超越一般型態的問題。詮釋結構模式法(Interpretive Structural Modeling, ISM)是IM 的主要結構方法，以二元矩陣(binary matrix)與有向圖(digraph, directed graph)間的對應機制為數學基礎，以詮釋結構模式(interpretive structural model)為最終產出。ISM具有將不同類型的元素與關係組成結構的特質，因此可以釐清複雜的事態。本文將簡述 ISM 的源起、基本概念、演算法、操作程序，並以港市直航對高雄總體發展影響之策略為例，說明ISM 的操作過程與產出。研究成果獲得12 項高雄地區因應直航趨勢的策略，經以增強結構呈現及詮釋，顯示高雄民眾期待中央賦予更多的資源並允諾高雄在兩岸直航中擔任更重要的角色。另外，IM 會議的學習效果與決策品質顯示結合ISM 的IM 程序適於民眾參與使用。藉由對ISM 建構過程與詮釋結構模式的解釋，提供對複雜事務的決策協助，是處理複雜公共事務議題的有效工具。

The complexity is one of major common ingredients of public affairs problems. The complexity lies not only in the system but also in the human mind. Among various methods coping with complexity, Interactive Management (IM) is underpinned by the Structure-Based School, and consistent with the assumptions in science of complexity. IM is a system of management invented to apply to complexity, and intends to solve situations that are beyond the normal type of problem ultimately. The Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) process is the main structure method for IM. It is based upon the mechanics of the one-to-one correspondence between binary matrices and digraphs. The method has some useful characters to structure different kinds of element and relation, so can clarify the complex situation. The final products of ISM are interpretive structural models. This study sketches ISM origins, basic concepts, algorithms, processes, and explains the courses and outcomes of application by the case of strategies for possible impacts on Kaohsiung’s grand development from cross-strait direct shipping. The study acquires 12 strategies to deal with the trend towards cross-strait direct shipping for Kaohsiung. These strategies are organized in an enhancement structure and interpreted. The results show that the residents of Kaohsiung expect the central government grant more resource and permit Kaohsiung to play more important role in cross-strait. Furthermore, the performance evaluations of IM sessions show the IM procedure which combines ISM is suitable for citizen participation. It offers decision support from the structuring course and the interpretations of structure. Therefore it is an effective tool which copes with the complicated public affairs issues.