影響台商對東南亞直接投資之因素研究：引力模型之分析

The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment of Taiwan's Manufacturers in Southeast Asia: the Gravity Model Approach

東南亞各國向來是台商對外投資選項中，除了中國之外的重要直接投資地區。本研究主要目的在研究台商於東南亞投資的因素，並且就總體經濟資料如國民生產毛額、人口數、出口金額、進口金額、匯率及其他因素等，對於台商在東南亞各國直接投資行為的影響。本研究主要是依據引力模型，進行影響台商投資東南亞各國總體經濟因素的探討。但由於台商對東南亞各國投資因為年資料的時間數列較短，以至於引力模型的參數估計會有變異過大的現象。為解決資料較少的問題，因此本研究將各國資料視為序貫資料（panel data），利用互相藉助力量的方法，以重複測量的特性建立各國投資模型的重複測量引力模型，進而就台商在東南亞各國投資的特性進行研究。Southeast Asia is always one of the most important options as Taiwan's manufacturers consider foreigner direct investment except China. This research analyzes the main determinants that influence the foreign direct investments of Taiwan's manufacturers in Southeast Asia. And we consider some factors such as GDP, population, imports, exports, exchange rate to realize how those factors affect the FDI of Taiwan's manufacturers. Because the recent annual historical time series about FDI is not so substantial that the estimates of gravity model parameter may have large variance. For solving previous problem, we rearrange the FDI data as panel data and estimate the gravity model parameter by borrowing strength and repeated measure method. Finally, we construct the repeated measure gravity model to analyze the characteristic of Taiwan manufacturers' foreign direct investments in Southeast Asia.