鹹海環境退化之原因及影響

淡水是極珍貴之資源，許多專家預言淡水可能是未來衝突之引爆點。在昔日蘇聯棉花單作政策之影響下，鹹海日漸乾涸。除了鹹海縮減外，尚造成許多與環境有關的變遷（如河水、海水污染，空氣品質惡化，人類健康受損，沙漠化，氣候變遷等）。要如何減緩、遏止、甚至扭轉日漸嚴重的負面變化，決策者幾乎拿不出對策。此悲劇被稱為前蘇聯時代的「寧靜的車諾堡事件」，鹹海的消失也被公認是二十世紀最大的人為環境退化。據聯合國專家估計，鹹海將於2020年之前自地表消失。中亞五國不斷重申鹹海乾涸是全球性災難，且若無國際援助則幾乎不可能挽救之。然而，在中亞五國獨立後，國際社會已提供許多援助以減緩環境退化，但五國幾乎沒有採取實際行動拯救鹹海。本論文認為鹹海危機的根源不是技術問題，而在政治原因，並將人為活動與自然環境變遷間的關係建立一個模型。Fresh Water is very precious. Many exports expect conflict would erupt over water resources. Due to the Soviet legacy of cotton monoculture, the Aral Sea gradually decline. Besides the shrinking of the Aral Sea, there are several environment-related changes (pollution of river and sea water, air quality degradation, deterioration of human health, desertification, climate change, and so forth), decision makers have had difficulty in addressing ways to slow down, arrest, or reverse the gradually occurring adverse changes. This tragedy is referred to in the former Soviet Union as a 'Quiet Chernobyl', and the demise of the Aral Sea has become acknowledged as on of the major human-induced, environmental degradations of the twentieth century. By 2020, according to United Nations experts, the symbol will likely no longer exist The Central Asian states reiterate the sea's shrinkage a global disaster and rehabilitating the depleted sea would be practically impossible without the international community's support. International communities, however, have helped the Central Asian states to mitigate environmental degradation since 1992, but they have not taken concrete actions to save the Aral Sea. This research suggests the root of Aral Sea crisis is not a technical problem, but a political question, and builds a model of the interrelationship among human activities and natural environmental changes.