中國大陸城鎮化進展與影響

The Progress and Impact of Mainland China's Urbanization

中國大陸過去35年城鎮化發展迅速，城鎮化率從1978年的不到20%上升至2013年的53.7%，此期間，城鎮人口成長超過5億。發展雖如此快速，但其過程仍有許多不完善之處亟待解決。因此，中國大陸欲藉由「國家新型城鎮化規劃（2014-2020年）」的推動，以作為未來城鎮化健康發展的宏觀及基礎性的規劃，惟推動過程中，中國大陸仍面臨著戶籍、土地、就業及財政等挑戰，因此，如不徹底改革並輔以相關配套措施，恐會使這幅雄偉的藍圖反變成空中樓閣。對臺商而言，城鎮化的效應主要在於內需市場擴張，以及產業升級等對臺商投資經營的影響，此外，因臺商在中國大陸仍以勞力密集加工出口業務為主，農民工可能因城鎮化的推動，降低外出打工的意願，致沿海缺工問題進一步嚴重。此時除打擊臺商競爭力外，亦可能影響兩岸產業供應鏈狀況，進而降低我對中國大陸的出口，形成對臺灣的經濟隱憂。

After 35 years of rapid development, the degree of urbanization in mainland China has increased from less than 20% in 1978 to 53.7% in 2013, and the increase in the urban population has been more than 500 million. Despite its rapid development, however, the process of Mainland China’s urbanization still has many problems which need to be solved. Mainland China has launched the New National Urbanization Plan (2014-2020) as a comprehensive, overall and fundamental policy guideline for promoting a healthier development of urbanization. But some challenges remain, such as reforming the Hukou system, redesigning the land use system, providing better financial support and so on. Therefore, if the reform is not completed and supplemented by proper measures, this grand plan will probably fail. For Taiwan businessmen, the impacts of Mainland China’s urbanization mainly come from the expansion of its domestic market and industrial upgrading. In addition, because the main operations of Taiwan businessmen in Mainland China are still labor-intensive export processing activities, migrant workers might be less willing to work far away from their homes because of urbanization, causing much more serious labor shortage problems in coastal areas. The shortage problem will not only reduce Taiwan companies’ competitiveness, but also affect cross-strait industrial supply chains, which in turn will cause Taiwan’s exports to China to drop, and to become a potential risk in the longer run.