中國大陸經濟發展模式轉變可能風險之探討

A Study on Potential Risks in the Transformation of Mainland China’s Economic Development Model

中國大陸政府將「十二五」規劃時期（2011-2015年）定調為「加快轉變發展方式的攻堅時期」，並以經濟結構調整為核心。然而，由於國有企業改革陷入停滯、收入分配與保障機制改革受挫等原因，導致民間消費無法明顯提升，可能導致發展模式無法順利轉型。對於大陸發展模式轉型的進展，我政府相關機關應密切注意，並思考當對岸角色由供給者變換為合作者、競爭者對我可能產生的影響，以預作因應，進而擴大兩岸經貿合作的廣度與深度。更重要的是，要持續透過獎勵研發與創新、培育國內高階人力資源、協助台商進行全球佈局、完善國際化營運環境等政策，化被動為主動，強化我國對大陸的競爭優勢，並創造成長新動能。

Mainland China has defined the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015) as the key period for accelerating the transformation of its economic development model, with economic structural adjustment as the core of the transformation process. However, due to factors such as the stagnation of state-owned enterprise reform and the setbacks experienced in reforming income distribution and security mechanisms, it has not been possible to achieve a marked rise in private consumption, and this could seriously impede the transformation process. Taiwan’s government should pay close attention to the progress of mainland China’s transformation process, and consider the possible impacts of the mainland changing its role from supplier to cooperator and competitor, in order to respond in advance, and to broaden and deepen cross-strait economic and trade cooperation. Most importantly, the government should take a more active rather than passive stance by pushing on with policies to encourage R&D and innovation, cultivate high-grade human resources, help Taiwanese enterprises position globally, enhance the internationalization of Taiwan’s business environment, and other such means of strengthening Taiwan’s competitive advantages vis-à-vis the mainland, and creating new driving forces for growth.