中國大陸房價泡沫可能破滅問題之探討

An Examination of Problems that May Result from a Bursting of the Housing Bubble in Mainland China

近期研究機構包括世界銀行、IMF、穆迪、惠譽等近期紛紛提出大陸房地產風險預警，顯示大陸房價泡沫破滅風險劇增。本研究發現基於政治因素考量在2012年中共新領導人接班前，房地產市場應無泡沫破滅風險。然而若以經濟因素觀察，在存、貸利率及CPI不變下（分別為3.5%、4.45%、6.2%），除非2012年大陸房價下跌幅度達18%或物價上漲幅度劇減為0.92%的情況下（即房價不變），大陸房價泡沫才有爆破可能。另，當房價泡沫破滅時，除全球大宗商品價格下挫外，出口至大陸的國家如台灣、日本、韓國、巴西、馬來西亞等國經濟也深受影響。此外，由於台灣對大陸出口依存度過高，大陸房價泡沫破滅對台灣經濟影響程度可能十分嚴重。為因應此一風險，政府應落實執行分散市場策略，積極拓展全球主要市場及新興市場，加快他國家洽簽FTA腳步。此外，也應審慎審查建築業及金融業赴大陸投資風險，建構大陸台商中小企業信用保證基金，提供台商融資保證，協助業者度過大陸房價泡沫破裂的衝擊。

Many research institutions, including the World Bank, the IMF, Moody’s, and the Fitch Group, have recently issued risk warnings about mainland China’s housing market, indicating an increasing risk of its housing bubble bursting. This paper finds that, based on consideration of political factors, it is unlikely that the bubble will burst before the mainland’s new leadership takes office in the fall of 2012. However, if we examine economic factors alone, then under the assumption that the saving, interest and inflation (CPI) rates stay at their present levels of 3.5%, 4.45% and 6.2% respectively, there will be a possibility of the housing bubble bursting in 2012 if, and only if, the mainland’s housing prices fall by as much as 18% or consumer price inflation plummets to 0.92% (with housing prices unchanged). Moreover, when the housing bubble does burst, in addition to depressing global commodity prices, it will also have a deep economic impact on countries that export to the mainland, including Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Brazil and Malaysia. Furthermore, due to its high level of export dependence on the mainland, Taiwan could experience an extremely severe economic impact from the bursting of the mainland’s housing bubble. To respond to this risk, Taiwan’s government should implement a strategy of diversifying export markets, working actively to develop main markets and emerging markets around the world, and speeding up the negotiation and signing of free trade agreements (FTAs) with other countries. Also, the government should carefully review the risks of construction industry and financial industry investment in the mainland, and set up a credit guarantee fund to provide financing guarantees for Taiwanese small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) investing in the mainland, to help businesses weather the shock of a bursting of the mainland’s housing bubble.