全球金融風暴對東南亞國家經濟之衝擊與因應

How Southeast Asian Economies Were Affected by and Responded to the Global Financial Crisis

1997年由泰國引爆的亞洲金融危機，迄今已逾10年，當年受創的東南亞國家經過IMF緊急紓困及大力推動經濟改革後，經濟回穩。正當這些國家經濟回穩之際，又受全球金融風暴衝擊，使以出口為導向的東南亞國家經濟再度遭受嚴重打擊，出口劇減，經濟成長衰退。為因應此一嚴峻的經濟情勢，各國政府積極採取寬鬆的貨幣與金融政策，紛紛推出降息、紓困、擴大內需等振興經濟措施。在振興經濟措施奏效下，多數東南亞國家的國內生產總值、出口或經濟成長率自2009年第2季起皆明顯好轉，並自2009年第3季復甦，顯示各國大都已走出衰退的陰霾。預測東南亞國家2010年經濟持續復甦，惟通膨及資產價格泡沫問題仍需密切注意。

More than a decade has passed since the Asian Financial Crisis erupted in Thailand in 1997. Most of the Southeast Asian countries hard hit by that crisis were able to restabilize their economies through the emergency support measures provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the vigorous implementation of economic reforms. Buoyed by exports, investment and consumption, they posted growth rates matched by few elsewhere in the world in the ten-year period from 1998 to 2008. But in 2008, their economic resurgence was knocked back again by the outbreak of the global financial crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September of that year. As global trade contracted sharply in the wake of the crisis, the export-oriented Southeast Asian economies were severely affected by rapid export shrinkage, evaporating capital inflows, and stalling economic growth. In response to these circumstances, and drawing on their experience in the 1997 crisis, the region’s governments actively adopted monetary and fiscal loosening policies, moving swiftly to cut interest rates, implement rescue programs, and take steps to boost domestic demand, with the aim of reinvigorating their economies. Thanks to the effectiveness of these measures, most of the countries in the region began to show a marked upturn in their gross domestic output, exports and economic growth from the second quarter of 2009, and were clearly into recovery in the third quarter of the year. But though their economies are expected to continue to recover in 2010, there are concerns about inflation and asset-price bubbles that still need watching closely.