全球經濟危機對台灣貿易之影響及對策

The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on Taiwan's Trade, and Policy Responses Thereto

這一波全球經濟危機對台灣金融面的影響有限，但對實質面的衝擊卻相當大，其原因為台灣經濟相當依賴外貿。受到歐美市場需求急凍的影響，台灣對外貿易急速萎縮，工業生產大幅衰退，經濟轉為負成長。與亞洲鄰近出口導向國家相較，台灣出口不但率先衰退，且跌幅大於亞洲鄰近國家。基此，本文以台灣對外貿易長期趨勢及面臨之問題為分析主軸，探討全球經濟危機造成台灣外貿急速萎縮的原因，究係本身結構性的問題？抑或國際景氣低迷所致？同時，本文亦針對經濟危機發生後，全球的經貿版圖重整及台灣出口策略的調整方向提出建議。

The recent global economic crisis had a limited impact on Taiwan’s financial sector, but delivered a substantial shock to the real side of Taiwan’s economy, due to the economy’s high dependence on foreign trade. The sharp contraction in demand in Western markets caused Taiwan’s exports to decline steeply, industrial production to plummet, and the economy to dip into negative growth. Compared with neighboring export-oriented Asian countries, Taiwan not only was the first to suffer a plunge in exports, but also suffered a greater decline than any of the others. Hence, drawing primarily on analysis of the long-term trends of Taiwan’s foreign trade and the problems it has faced along the way, this paper examines the reasons why Taiwan’s export performance was so badly affected by the global economic crisis, and whether its own structural problems were a contributing factor. The paper also makes suggestions on the redrawing of the global economic and trade map and directions for the adjustment of Taiwan’s export strategy in the aftermath of the economic crisis.