資本管制可否防堵貨幣危機的發生？

Can Capital Control Prevent a Currency Crisis?

造成貨幣危機的原因有許多，政府長期釘住不適當的匯價或者民眾預期的自我實現都可能是造成貨幣危機的主因。至於解決貨幣危機的方式也有許多，資本管制就是其中一種，對金融發展尚未健全的國家採取適當的資本管制，能夠限制國際資金流動對該國經濟的影響，進而降低貨幣危機發生的機率；不過，資本管制也可能是一國經濟狀態不佳、金融環境不安全的一個訊號，引發資金的外移，進而造成匯率的不穩定，反而增加貨幣危機發生的機率。本文在一個完整且嚴謹的架構下，同時探討自我實現的預期與國際資本的移動對貨幣危機的影響，解釋了何時資本管制能夠穩定匯價，並且說明了自我實現的預期如何導致資本管制擴大了貨幣危機的機率可能性。

There are many causes attributed to currency crisis. Unsuitable fixed exchange rate or self -fulfilling expectation might be the main causes. There are also many solutions for currency crisis. Capital control is one of them. Capital control on a country with weak financial development can limit the effects on the country from the international capital flows and hence can reduce the likelihood of currency crisis. However, capital control also can signal that a country is in a weak economic state and in an unsafe financial environment, triggering capital outflow, causing the fluctuations of the exchange rate, and therefore increase the likelihood of currency crisis. This paper sets up a complete and rigorous model considering the effects at the same time of both international capital flow and self-fulfilling expectation on currency crisis. This model explains when capital control can stabilize exchange rate and how self-fulfilling expectation results in that capital control increases the likelihood of cu rrency crisis.