中國製造業產業合併的程度與趨勢

Degree and Trend on the Industrial Consolidation of the Manufacturing Industry in China

中國產業的產業集中度偏低，為了創造規模經濟，以維持國際競爭力，中國政府對產業結構的調整刻不容緩，但是目前對於產業合併的學術研究尚不完整，因此本研究依據產業合併週期曲線與企業規模分布理論，以中國製造業的八個子產業為研究樣本，計算製造業的產業集中度，並利用齊夫理論計算齊夫係數。本研究發現中國製造業八個子產業的產業集中度低，齊夫係數亦呈現下降的趨勢，未來發生產業合併的可能性高。

The industry in China had a lower degree of the industrial consolidation. In order to create the economies of scale to remain competitive, the China government should adjust the structure of the industry right now. However, academic research on the industrial consolidation was not complete, so this research was based on the industrial consolidation cycle curve and the distribution theory of the company sizes to analyse the eight sub manufacturing industries in China. We calculated the degree on the industrial consolidation of the manufacturing industry, and used Zipf theory to calculate Zipf coefficient. Main findings were as follows：degrees on the industrial consolidation of eight sub manufacturing industries in China were low, and Zipf coefficient showed a downward trend. There will be a strong probability that the industrial consolidation happens in the future.