從「攻勢現實主義」看台灣的「活路外交」及「外交休兵」

Analyzing Taiwan's ＂Viable Diplomacy＂ and ＂Diplomatic Truce＂: An Offensive Realist Understanding

本文旨在從現實主義的重要分支之一，攻勢現實主義，來評估台灣的重要外交政策，「活路外交」與「外交休兵」。攻勢現實主義著重的是強權的行為，台灣雖然很少被人認為是強權，但是台灣的外交政策卻受到一個攻勢現實主義所探討和分析的潛在霸權—中國所強烈影響，甚至可以說，中國是影響台灣外交政策的唯一外在變數。本文認為是在可見的未來，中國可能成為攻勢現實主義所定義的大國，而和區域外的大國很可能走上對抗。在馬政府執政之後，在「九二共識」之下推動「活路外交」，的確讓台灣與中國在國際上的正面交鋒和衝突減少。但是否是由於北京的善意，抑或台灣自動退守仍需更多事實證明。至於「外交休兵」，固然鞏固了現有邦交國，但要防止被詮釋為「變更現狀」的作為。目前台灣的一中政策，很有可能會被視為是有和中國結盟的意圖，因為這很明顯的是在「變更現狀」。如台灣不能藉由外交展現自我防衛的決心及投資，勢將影響民主盟邦支持的意願，若更進一步被定位為中國的附庸，未來在區域外大國遏制中國的過程中，一旦發生衝突，國家意志將可能遭大國壓制，政府將更難捍衛國家主權的完整並保障國家的利益。

This article seeks to analyze Taiwan's two diplomatic policy guidelines, ＂viable diplomacy＂ and ＂diplomatic truce＂ through offensive realism. According the offensive realism's assumption, China is likely to become a potential hegemon in the East Asia and may attempt to change the status quo in the future. For the reason China is now becoming a major problem affecting regional security. Moreover, China is the most significant factors for impacting Taiwan's diplomacy. Therefore, this article introduces the China's possible actions at first, and then assesses the effects and influences of both Taiwan's new diplomatic policy guidelines under the rising Chinese hegemon. The argument of the article is the Taiwan's diplomatic situation has remained stable under these guidelines, but Taiwan may be regarded as a China's ally against the U.S. and Japan. With this development, Taiwan needs to strengthened its political, economic and military relations with the other countries in this region and attempt to avoid regarding as a only partner of China to jointly change the current security situation in regional special flash point, such as Diaoyu/Senkaku islands dispute.