渡假村投資開發之時程規劃模式

A Model for Planning the Development Schedule of Resort Projects

有別於一般的不動產投資開發，渡假村開發專案在規劃設計、興建及營運的過程中需要持續且龐大的資源投入，以維持對遊客的吸引力。由於須考慮多項變動因子，規劃者很難在眾多可能的設施與進度組合中找出最佳的開發策略。本研究提出的時程規劃模式，以模擬分析方式預測各方案之淨現值，各期各項設施開發優先性以基因編碼代表，經過世代繁衍汰弱留強找出最佳開發策略及進度規劃。在假設案例分析中可發現本研究提出的模式比專家更快地尋找出更佳的淨現值。對於專家以往排程時無法詳細考慮的資源供取關係，也透過模擬分析納入專案進度規劃的考量中。

In order to maintain the attractiveness, the development of most resort projects requires a continuous and larger investment of resources compared to conventional real estate projects. It is difficult for the planners to find out the optimal development schedule of amenities from numerous portfolio solutions. This research establishes an integrated model which prioritizes the value that each amenity can bring to the project, and develops their development schedule accordingly, based on net present values. Our proposed model searches the optimal development schedule by integrating simulation and a genetic algorithm. The resulting schedule will help investors achieve increased profits.