從現實主義看中國航母的外交和軍事影響

Analyzing the Diplomatic and Military Impact of China's Aircraft Carrier: A Realist Conception

本文擬以現實主義，特別是攻勢現實主義來解析中國獲得航空母 艦的國際政治與外交影響。接著再結合「炮艦外交」理論來作討論， 從炮艦外交的性質和限制來看中國航母是否能達成新時代的「炮艦外 交」，並從前述理論架構出發，而非單純討論中國航空母艦的戰術技 術性能，來分析中國航母的軍事意義。本文初步發現，因為仍存有一 些限制條件，航母短期內無法完全讓中國達成「炮艦外交」的全部目 的；但航母的軍事意義絕對會強化甚至確定周邊國家視中國為潛在霸 權的看法，依據攻勢現實主義，隨之而來的對抗恐難避免，因此航母 對中國的外交仍存在一定負面因素。因此，北京將謹慎地運用航母的 軍事意義支援外交作為；但即使如此，隨著航母的成軍，東北亞的新 一輪戰略衝突及螺旋狀的外交和軍事對抗，應可預期。

This paper combines offensive realism and gunboat diplomacy theory for analyzing the potential diplomatic and military meanings of China's new aircraft carrier “Liaoning.” Moreover, the paper discuss the inevitable factors for the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to establish a reliable capability for operating an aircraft carr ier battle group(CVBG) against potential threats. This paper argues that China will take several years for the Liaoning to reach full capacity, mainly due to training and coordination which will take significant amount of time for Chinese PLA Navy to complete as this is the first aircraft carrier in their possession. However, the PLAN's new CVBG still may enhance the image of hegemony of China in regional neighbors. Therefore, Beijing intends to carefully use its CVBG's power to assist its diplomacy in order to avoid the more doubt of China's rising ambition in other countries, but the more spiral strategic conflicts are expectable in the future.