應用模糊德爾菲與分析網路程序法選擇最佳產品設計方案之研究

A Study on Selecting Optimal Product Design Solution Using Fuzzy Delphi Method and Analytic

成功的新產品開發能確保公司的經營持續成長；景氣衰退時有助企業突破困境，甚至反敗為勝。至於在新產品開發過程的最終決策階段，要如何選擇符合該組織最大營運效益且適切的產品設計方案，尤其重要。選擇最佳產品設計方案屬於多準則決策問題，影響因素眾多，諸如技術研發、財務規劃、市場行銷、生產製造和產品設計等。而與這些構面有關之各個準則彼此間事實上存在著某種程度的相互依存及回饋關係：方案間同樣也具此一特性。 本研究首先藉由模糊德爾菲法針對特定產品類型，以問卷調查方式徵詢不同領域專家意見，經量化分析及篩選的程序獲得具關鍵性的影響因子，作為產品設計方案選擇的評估準則。接著考量上述之內部相依性，透過一新產品開發團隊以群體討論的方式應用創新的分析網路程序法（ANP）求取各待決方案的優先順序權值，並依此選出最佳的產品設計方案。實證研究以MP3 player新產品開發案為例，說明此決策模式在操作上的可行。同時進一步比較分析傳統AHP法演算求得之各方案優先權值W（下標 AHP）=（0.357, 0.381, 0.262）與ANP法的結果W（下標 ANP）=（0.349, 0.520, 0.131）。明顯發現兩種不同的決策方法應用於此案例是各具優缺點：AHP法操作簡單、容易理解，但結果並不顯著：且最重要的是AHP法並未考量上述準則間及方案間的內部相依性。相反地，ANP法雖然繁瑣，卻符合真實情形，其結果也較為決策者所接受。

Successful new product development can ensure continuous growth of a company. However, wrong decisions made may have catastrophic impact. Hence, it is important to select an appropriate design solution that can bring about the highest operation efficiency. Various factors including technological development, finance, marketing, production and design have to be taken into consideration when selecting the optimal product design solution. These different factors are interdependent, and the same is true for the different solutions derived from these determining factors. In this paper, we propose a method for selecting product design solutions using Fuzzy Delphi Method （FDM） and Analytic Network Process （ANP）. First, the FDM is employed to identify determining factors on optimum product design selection through conducting a survey among experts of different disciplines of new product development. Then the ANP is adopted to determine the weights of different candidates of product design solutions, which would reveal the optimal solution. A case study of MP3 player is presented to illustrate the overall decision procedure and to examine two sets of priority index [wAHP = （0.357, 0.381, 0.262）; wANP = （0.349, 0.520, 0.131）] derived using the AHP and ANP approaches, respectively. Although there is no significant difference in ranking between these two approaches, there exists great disparity in the final priority weights of alternatives. Incorporating the interdependencies among different decision levels, the ANP approach is preferred to the AHP approach and should be adopted, if possible, in the selection of optimum product design solution.