灰色系統理論於流行色預測上的研究

Using Grey System Theory to Fashion Color Prediction

灰色系統（Grey System）自1982年被提出後，在中國大陸被廣泛的應用在許多領域的預測上，如糧食產能預測、氣象預測、節災變預測，均獲得令人滿意的結果。流行色的趨勢往往受社會的諸多因素影響如政治、經濟、文化、環保、治安等。這些因素除量化困難外，其交互影響關係亦不明確，此與灰色系統適用的條件領域吻合。因此，本研究嘗試以灰色系統做為流行色預測的方法。期能用一種較客觀的方法，透過統計分析歷年來的流行色以預測未來的流行色趨勢，作為流行色預測的參考。 本研究採用NCD色彩意象空間作為流行色的量化指標訂定的主要參考，再利用灰色系統預測未來的流行色的分布，實驗數據顯示以灰色系統作為流行色趨勢預測的基本模型，其預測的結果富參考價值。

Since of grey system theory was proposed in 1982, it has been successfully applied to many fields such as the prediction in crop productivity, weather change and seasonal disasters. The trend of fashion colors is influenced by many factors such as politics, economy, culture, and public security. Apparently, it is very difficult to quantify those factors. Besides, the interaction effect among them is also uncertain. Such a state of affairs matches the condition domain the grey system can apply to. Therefore, in this research we try to build a fashion-color prediction model using grey system theory. We hope such a prediction model, which gives the future fashion-color distribution by analyzing historical data, can objectively provide important information for the experts involved in determining the future fashion-colors. In this research, we use the NCD color-image space to quantify the historical fashion-color data so as to obtain quantitative indices to form time series. These data can then be fed into the grey prediction model to predict the possible fashion-color distribution of coming years. The experimental result reveals that the model can give valuable information in determining the future fashion-colors.