居民災害認知與避難行為意願之研究－－以高雄市鼓山區為例

Disaster Cognition and Evacuation Willingness of Residents: Case Study of Gushan District in Kaohsiung City

面對大規模災害的威脅，居民具備正確的環境風險認知、災害自救行為、防災意識、及災時應變能力，是非常重要且急迫的。由於居民的防災、減災、整備及應變能力會隨著災害規模、次數及受災經驗而變動，然而畢竟我們無法藉由提供居民受災經驗以提高綜合防災能力。緣此，本研究嘗試以居民觀點，配合居民問卷調查，運用羅吉斯迴歸模型分析影響居民避難行為意願之相關因素變數（居民防災意識、災害風險認知、疏散注意事項、離家避難決定、水災自救行為、火災自救行為、災害經驗影響、地震與土石流自救行為、防災準備、震災建物安全規定），以提供都市防災計畫訂定時之參考。重要研究發現，羅吉斯迴歸模型結果顯示居民防災意識、疏散注意事項、離家避難決定、災害經驗影響、及地震與土石流自救行為等5 項變數，係為影響居民面對災害時，決定居民避難行為意願高低之重要變數。其中最高前三項因素變數勝算比包括，居民防災意識（X1）、疏散注意事項（X3）、居民離家避難決定（X4）。建議可以透過平時防災教育與地區防災計畫內容的宣導，提升地區居民整體防災素質，當居民愈熟悉地區防災計畫，則居民離家避難決定愈快，可以影響避難行為意願的增加。

Facing with threat of large scale disaster it is very important for residents to learn proper cognition for environmental risk, self rescue for disaster, disaster prevention perception and response ability for disaster. Due to the variation of ability for disaster prevention, reduction, preparedness and response show positive relation with disaster scale, frequency and experiences. This study aims to model residents’ evacuation behavior by questionnaires and Logistic regression model considering related variables ex. residents’ disaster prevention consciousness, hazard risk cognition, evacuation notices, escape from home decision, flood self rescue, fire self rescue, disaster experiences, earthquake and debris flow self rescue, disaster preparedness, and earthquake resilient building code. The results show the evacuation decision of residents are affected by disaster prevention consciousness, evacuation notices, escape from home decision, disaster experiences, and earthquake and debris flow self rescue. And Logistic regression model explains the top three higher odd ratio are disaster prevention consciousness（X1） , evacuation notices （X3） , and escape from home decision（X4） . It is suggested that disaster prevention education and domestic disaster plan are able to enhance the comprehensive quality of disaster prevention. The well known of the plan the faster of evacuation decision will be made. Also it will affect the willingness of evacuation after disaster.