探討氣候變遷與內戰嚴重程度的關連性：以溫度差異為例，1960～2006年

Climate Change and Civil Conflict Severity: The Case of Temperature Variability, 1960~2006

氣候變遷是否會導致死傷程度更嚴重的內戰？近年來氣候變遷與衝突研究學者將氣候議題觸角伸至內戰的研究之中，並且大致同意氣候變遷（例如溫度變化與降雨型態改變）可能引發內戰。然而，目前他們的討論僅及於氣候對內戰發生的機率，但對於內戰發生後是否變得更為嚴重則仍未有進一步的討論。本文以 1960～2006年的130場內戰為對象，並以溫度差異作為氣候變遷的代理變數，探討溫度變化對內戰嚴重程度的影響。實證研究發現，當年均溫與過去半世紀的平均溫度之間差異增加時，內戰變得更為嚴重。探究其原因可能是境內團體或人民受到氣候變遷加劇，導致經濟來源變得更為不穩定；在政府與叛亂團體都必須設法取得較為穩定的經濟來源，而政治勢力更需要在資源變少的情形下鞏固政權，雙方不管是訴求推翻政府、部分領土獨立或是較大程度的自治等，都必須發動更猛烈的攻勢，但也因此導致更嚴重的死傷。本文的發現將進一步提供氣候治理與衝突預防等政策啟示。

Will climate change lead to militarily severe civil conflicts? In recent years climate change and civil conflict scholars have extended their discussions to whether or not climate change increases the onset of civil war and a general consensus has been reached. However, it is still not clear if climate change (such as temperature and rainfall fluctuations) also leads to bloodier results if civil conflicts have begun. Using 130 civil conflicts during the 1960~2006 period, and temperature deviation as the proxy variable for climate change, this paper examines whether climate change affects the severity of civil conflict. The empirical findings confirm that when the difference between the average temperature of the year in which civil conflicts start and that of the past 50 years increases, civil conflicts become bloodier. Possible reasons are economic and political concerns triggered by resource scarcity because of climate change. This forces both the government and belligerent groups to fight harder in order to maintain or change the current situations, respectively. The final section of this paper offers policy implications and directions for future research.