運用顧客終身價值模型及ARIMA分析評估顧客價值：臺灣百貨公司個案分析

Using Customer Lifetime Value Models and ARIMA Analysis to Value Customers: A Case Study of Department Store in Taiwan

在顧客關係管理中，顧客終身價值（Customer Lifetime Value）係－項有助於取得及留住VIP顧客的有用的標準，並且獲得相關人士認同。但是目前傳統的衡量方法並無法有效的衡量顧客終身價值。企業投注心力於未來無法帶來效益之顧客，或者不知道如何運用顧客相關經驗於提高價值之上。因此，行銷經理當前所面臨的挑戰為如何將顧客終身價值與行銷活動作有效之結合。特別是經理人需要收集顧客資料及整合顧客終身價值並運用於企業與顧客間之互動。本研究探討三項不同模型以衡量顧客終身價值，研究中針對不同顧客群體分別評估其顧客終身價值，並建構模型以預測影響顧客終身價值之關鍵因素。本研究運用台灣某百貨公司之顧客實證資料，依據研究架構進行個案分析。研究之貢獻有三：（1）運用ARIMA分析針對未來銷售預測及現金流量進行分析，提供可運用於實務上的方法。（2）針對能提升顧客終身價值的關鍵要素（如：顧客維持率），提供深入的探討。（3）研究結果提供經理人作為分配相關資源配置以提升顧客終身價值，進而作為改善利潤之參考。

Although customer lifetime value (CLV) is rapidly gaining acceptance as a metric to help acquire, cultivate, and retain VIP customers through customer relationship management, traditional valuation methods do not work well. Either companies have begun working with undesirable customers, or they do not know how to customize the customer’s experience to create the highest value. Consequently, the challenge that most marketing managers currently face is to bring together marketing actions and CLV. Specifically, they need to take the customer data they have collected and integrate CLV with how the firm interacts with its customers.We examine three models for the lifetime value of a cohort of customers, aggregate the lifetime value across different cohorts, and then construct models to forecast the key input to the models. In this study, we use customer data from a department store in Taiwan to illustrate the proposed framework empirically. Our main contributions are in three areas: (1) providing a better method for forecasting the future stream of sales and cash flow by using ARIMA analysis, (2) providing insights about key factors (e.g., retention rate) that can help managers improve CLV, and (3) suggesting that profits can be substantially improved when managers design resource allocation rules that improve CLV.