BOT計畫投資時點選擇之價值評估－－以大鵬灣國家風景區為例

Valuation of Investment Timing for a BOT Project-The Case of Tapeng Bay National Scenic Area

傳統現金流量折現法之基於目前的時點作決策，無法考慮未來做決策之彈性價值。然而投資環境常是多變的，因此決策者可採取等待策略，當投資有利潤時，再執行投資開發。在目前民間參與投資公共建設計畫中（BOT）中，優先議約權可被特許公司用來決開發時機，此乃類似選擇權理論中之遞延選擇權，因此可用來估計此不確定性中所隱含的投資時點價值。本研究以「大鵬灣國家風景區開發案」為例，進行投資時點選擇之價值評估，結果發現，此BOT專案僅以傳統淨現值評估會使得計畫中的民間管理彈性價值遭到低估。而變異數、存續期間兩者與實質選擇權有正向關係，這反應出選擇權的特性，亦即未來市場狀況的變動情形將會帶給投資計畫正向的貢獻。

Investment decision-making is based on the current time-point for the traditional discounted cash flow model, which is unable to estimate the value of uncertainly. However, the economic environment is always changing. Investment decision hence can be deferred until situation is favorable. In the project of Built-Operate-Transfer, the right of contract negotiation can be used to decide the timing of an investment for the concessionaire. The theory of option to defer would be an appropriate methodology for evaluating the right of contract negotiation. Therefore, this study examines the value of investment timing by using the Case of Tepeng Bay National Science Area. The results suggest that the value of the project is underestimated by the traditional net present value method. The variance and duration has positive relationship with value of real option, indicating the choice of timing has contributions of the project’s value.