| 英文摘要 |
Weather condition is an important factor associated with health, including cardiovascular diseases (CVD), respiratory diseases (RD) and communicable diseases. We used data obtained from national vital statistics to estimate mortality from CVD and RD associated with temperature, sex, age, air pollution and GDP in Taiwan. We also predicted the excess deaths in 2040-2050 and 2090-2100 associated with the warming climate and the rising elderly population. Results showed that the overall daily deaths from CVD were the lowest of 1.40 persons/county-day for men and 1.12 persons/county-day for women when it ranged 20-24℃; the death number increased to 1.82 and 1.35, respectively, when it was＜15℃. The corresponding lowest deaths from RD were 0.68 vs. 0.33 persons/county-day for males and females, respectively, when it ranged 20-24℃; the corresponding deaths increased to 0.89 and 0.42, when it was＜15℃., respectively. The mortalily increased with age. Multivariable Poisson regression analysis showed that the relative risk (RR) increased to 1.08 (95% CI 1.06-1.11) for mortality from CVD when it ranged＜15℃ compared with that at 20-24℃. The corresponding RR for RD was 1.03 (95% CI 1.003-1.07). The risk associated with air pollution was weaker. Overall, the heat waves will increase in the future. Deaths from low temperatures may decrease, however, because of aging, mortality associated with extreme heat will increase. |
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