民主化的社會經濟基礎－－公民抗爭運動的跨國實證研究

The Socioeconomic Origins of Democratization: An Empirical Study of Late Twentieth Century Civil Resistance Movements

在民主化第三波中，有許多國家成功地轉型，但僅有部份能持續民主發展。革命難，改革更難；民主化不易，民主深化更不易。這些過渡到民主的國家在何種情況和條件下，公民抗爭運動有較高的機會深化民主？本研究以20世紀後期64個經由人民抗爭運動推翻的成權統治國家，討論民主轉型前和轉型過程中的社會經濟基礎，及其後續民主鞏固的狀態。研究發現以非暴力的行動，成功地推翻成權統治者，有較高的機會深化民主。同時，在轉型期間過多的行使暴力抗爭，將減少了民主深化的機會。經濟發展程度則間接地影響了民主的深化。

While the third wave of democratization witnessed a historic increase in the number of democratic states by the late 1980s, the global trend toward democratization suffered setbacks at the end of the twentieth century. At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the color revolutions and civil resistance movements in Tunisia and Egypt led to speculation about a possible fourth wave of democratization. Why did some countries successfully consolidate democracy at the end of the twentieth century while others have failed to do so? What was the relationship between mass civil resistance movements and democratic durability during this period? This paper explores the social origins of democratic consolidation by examining 64 transitional countries with mass civil resistance movements in the late twentieth century. The results show that states with strong civic coalitions which used nonviolent tactics to overthrow authoritarian rule had a better chance of achieving democratic consolidation. States which experienced significant violent conflict were less likely to consolidate democracy. An important finding of this study is that the level of economic development did not influence democratic consolidation directly, but had an indirect impact by influencing the likelihood of political violence during the transition period?