台灣與東協洽簽自由貿易協定之經濟影響評估－－可計算一般均衡分析的應用

An Economic-Wide Analysis for Taiwan's Free Trade Agreement with ASEAN Countries - An Application of Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

在全球化、自由化、資通訊與運輸技術創新發展下，全球價值鏈與國際分工，已成為推動各區域經貿自由化協定主要助力。我國產業向東南亞採購零件、原物料，或至當地設廠情形普遍，而東協加三的生效實施也勢必會對我國產業全球佈局產生重大衝擊，必須及早因應。因此，本文以國際廣泛應用於評估自由貿易經濟影響的可計算一般均衡模型—GTAP（Global Trade Analysis Project）模型與資料庫，進行東協與我國簽署自由貿易協定之經濟影響評估；模擬結果發現，台灣與東協貿易自由化，可以抵銷台灣被東協加三開始後的邊緣化問題，實質GDP將增加7.07億美元，進出口亦大幅提高。其次，在台灣國際供應鏈變化上，泰國、越南與印尼，可能成為我國初級食品與下游食品加工業，更緊密之跨國供應鏈夥伴；煤、原油等能源產品以印尼與馬來西亞為最重要之來源；我國輕工業之供應鏈原料則以越南、印尼、馬來西亞為主要來源國；重工業以印尼、馬來西亞、越南最重要；電子業與精密工業則以泰國為最重要夥伴。東協國家確實為我國貿易自由化的重要國際供應鏈夥伴。

Under the influence of globalization, trade liberalization and innovative developments in information and logistics technology, global value chains and international specialization have become the primary driving force behind the promotion of regional trade agreements (RTA).Companies in Taiwan import materials and components for production from ASEAN countries and also invest substantially in ASEAN countries.Implementation of the ASEAN +3 free trade area, comprising ASEAN countries plus China, Korea and Japan, will affect the global development of Taiwan's industries. This study uses the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, known as the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, to evaluate the potential economic impacts on Taiwan's economy of signing or not signing an FTA with ASEAN. Simulation results show that liberalizing trade with ASEAN would offset the marginalization effects of Taiwan's non-participation in the ASEAN+3 FTA by raising both imports and exports and adding US$0.707 billion to real GDP. The analysis of impacts on Taiwan's global supply chains show that Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia would be Taiwan's primary partners in international supply chains of food processing industries; Indonesia and Malaysia would be top providers of energy commodities such as coal and crude oil; Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia would be the major suppliers of materials for light industry in Taiwan; and Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam would be the most important suppliers for Taiwan's heavy industry. Finally, Thailand would play the most important role as global supplier for electronics and precision industries in Taiwan. The paper concludes that ASEAN countries represent important potential international supply chain partners for Taiwan and attractive targets for RTAs.